The most favorable factor is still at the inflecti

The positive factors are still at the inflection point of the glass market, which has not yet appeared

since the end of July, according to the preliminary agreement, the general rise of the glass spot market has driven the futures price to rise sharply, with the highest increase of fg1701 of nearly 15%

on the one hand, supported by good real estate data, the demand for glass has increased substantially. The continuous price hikes in various regions and the enthusiastic stocking of traders jointly pushed the market higher; On the other hand, this year, the pressure from the supply side of the flat glass industry is not great. Some manufacturers even have zero inventory and reluctance to sell, which are the areas with the fastest growth in the world in recent years. In recent years, the inventory of production enterprises is generally low, and the supply and demand of the glass industry presents a tight balance pattern. Although the current fundamental preferences, the overall operation of the glass spot market is still good, but with the sharp pull of the glass market, the market risk is also gradually increasing, and the glass market is adjusted in the short term

prices in various regions are still high

from the performance of regional markets, the pace of price rise in the northern market is relatively slow, and the battle line is long. Since the end of this year, Shahe glass market has maintained a slow upward trend, with few declines during this period. The rising market of the small step model can better stimulate market sentiment, and downstream traders are happy to accept the price rise of glass manufacturers. However, the southern market did not perform well against the background of increased regional capacity pressure in the first half of the year. The market did not start gradually until the rainstorm in late July. In the past more than a month, the increase has exceeded market expectations. Among them, the average price of glass manufacturers in Central China rose by 390 yuan, or 34%. The performance of South China was even more eye-catching, with an increase of nearly 500 yuan/ton over the same period, up as high as 37.5%

there is little pressure on the net increase of production capacity

of the four new production lines built this year, three are from the south. After the resumption of production and cold repair of production lines are included, the net increase of production capacity is 2600 tons/day, while the first half of the northern market is 6 The annual production capacity of measured samples was almost in a net reduction state, which led to the situation that most of the industry was strong in the north and weak in the south in the first half of the year. Since entering the third quarter, the market has performed well all the way, but on the whole, there are no new production lines in the market, and there are only 8 resumption production capacity, most of which are concentrated in the northern market, with a total of 5400 tons/day. Compared with the hot market this year, this data is not enough to pose a supply threat

real estate regulation affects long-term demand

since the end of June, the inventory value of production enterprises has decreased sharply. At the end of June, the inventory of glass manufacturers fell by 4.7% year-on-year, and at the end of July, the inventory fell by 5.77% year-on-year. By the end of August, the data was reduced by as much as 8.21%, which strongly illustrates the improvement of the glass demand market and provides a strong driving force for glass manufacturers to raise prices step by step. The important factor supporting the decline of inventory is the improvement of real estate data. Whether it is the emergence of "land kings" around the country or the bright data of various real estate, it shows that the demand of the real estate industry has turned strong, and the demand for glass, an important building material in the housing market, has naturally been driven. However, the rising data has attracted the attention of local governments, and a number of regulatory policies are further carried out. In the medium and long term, as the market transmission effect continues to appear, the regulation will be further tightened in the future, and more cities will join the regulation, and the market may gradually cool down

to sum up, as the prices in various regions gradually stabilized at the end of August, the futures prices also failed to continue the strong upward trend, and a wave of adjustment has been launched recently. If the regulation of local governments is tightened vigorously, it may be detrimental to the future demand for glass. However, due to the current positive factors, we believe that the inclined block on the swing arm should not be violently impacted, and the inflection point of the glass market has not yet appeared. In the traditional peak season of "golden nine and silver ten", glass is more likely to oscillate at a high level

global glass () Department