The annual average output of the hottest paper ind

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According to the development trend of the paper industry, the China Paper Association predicted the total output and main products of domestic paper and paperboard in 2005: the output of machine-made paper and paperboard in 2005 was 39.2 million tons, an increase of 30 million tons from 2000, with an average annual increase rate of 4 9%, per capita consumption level kg. At the same time, some experts predict that China's paper market demand will reach 70-80 million tons in 2010. The increasing demand and investment has driven the continuous prosperity of the paper industry. The expectation of RMB appreciation and the implementation of anti-dumping policies have created a good external environment for the paper industry

Ms. Chen Fei of Southwest Securities Research and Development Center believes that there are five characteristics that show that the paper industry is still in a boom stage. As a basic raw material industry that is not significantly affected by the cyclical impact, although the profitability of the industry has been weakened due to the continued high prices of energy, transportation costs and the recent interest rate hike, the momentum of double-digit growth of the paper industry will not change

boom characteristics 1: analyze the specific situation of domestic paper product market and enterprises in 2004. Under the condition of rising pulp prices, the price rise of most kinds of paper products is equivalent to that of raw materials, and there is still room for the price rise of downstream paper products; The gross profit margin of some enterprises decreased slightly. At present, the trend of paper enterprises to ensure the stability of gross profit margin through large-scale operation is very obvious

boom feature 2: profit growth exceeds revenue growth. In 2004, the first category of monthly sales in the paper products industry was mainly used for precision laboratory machines. The sales revenue increased by more than 24%, and the profit growth was more than 30% except for a slightly lower growth in July

boom feature 3: the gap between supply and demand has been formed, and the demand driven industry boom. From the analysis of import and export trade, the import volume and foreign exchange of China's pulp and paper products increased significantly, while the export paper products decreased by 12.4%, which means that the gap between domestic pulp supply and demand has increased. Since the implementation of the anti-dumping trade policy for different products, the gap between paper products supply and demand has also appeared. According to the prediction of the supply and demand of major paper products, there will be a demand gap of about 10million tons of paper and paperboard in China in 2005. 2. The contradiction between inspection gaskets is prominent, the supply of low-grade products exceeds the demand, and the supply of high-grade products exceeds the demand

boom feature 4: the expected appreciation of RMB. The appreciation of the RMB will have a certain impact on the investment in the paper industry. Theoretically, before the appreciation of the RMB, it will usually attract a large number of overseas funds, and after the appreciation, foreign investment in China will be reduced. However, the paper industry is an industry with high dependence on imported materials for product production after it is put into production. Therefore, it is more likely that the investment level will continue to increase or maintain the original level after the investment project reaches production. The appreciation of RMB will also help the paper industry to save costs. 35% of the raw materials of China's paper industry come from abroad, which is a typical industry in which raw materials are in the foreign product market. The decline in raw material costs will affect the competitiveness and operating performance of most companies in the industry

boom feature 5: investment enthusiasm remains unchanged. The industry boom characteristics formed by the investment pull of the paper industry are also relatively obvious. When the investment growth of other major industries in the country fell one after another due to the acceleration of macro-control in 2004, the investment growth rate of the paper industry rose instead of falling. The entry of domestic and foreign capital showed good investment expectations in the market

at the same time, there is another item that is referred to as the strictest "in history; Control output rdquo; Policy mdash; mdash; ldquo; 276 working days reduction production system rdquo; (hereinafter referred to as "276 working days system") mdash; mdash; This is equivalent to a 84% discount on the overall coal production capacity that would have been produced in 330 working days. Boom feature 6: the variety of anti-dumping protection may increase. At present, the anti-dumping measures of the Ministry of Commerce of our country have basically covered the main categories of the whole paper industry. Under normal circumstances, the Ministry of Commerce will make a ruling in March, 2005, and the final ruling result is likely to make the kraft paper based packaging paper industry benefit from anti-dumping. 5. Hold the Second Council of the special committee

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